R cohort analysisretention driftdonor recencyappeal risk

Donor cohort risk lab for retention drift, upgrade pressure, and stewardship gaps.

A base-R operator surface for nonprofit and foundation teams: compare expected versus actual donor behavior, keep concentration and recency risks visible, and turn cohort drift into buyer-readable fundraising posture.

Route: /cohort-lane/Route: /retention-matrix/Route: /appeal-posture/

Synthetic demonstration data only. This repo models fundraising cohort risk and does not contain real donor or nonprofit CRM records.

Control-plane summary

Retention, upgrade, and recency from one R analysis path

10 pts

Retention Delta

Average gap between expected and actual cohort retention.

4.5 pts

Upgrade Delta

Average drift between expected and actual donor upgrades.

24.5 days

Recency Gap

Average number of days cohorts are lagging expected touchpoint cadence.

Escalated Cohorts

Cohorts requiring stewardship or appeal intervention.

Cohort risk matrix

Retention, upgrade, recency, and status

Cohort	Donors	Retention Delta	Upgrade Delta	Recency Gap	Status
Monthly sustainers DC-08 · Email + direct debit	1840	7 pts	4 pts	11 days	YELLOW
Mid-level annual DC-14 · Events + outbound	520	8 pts	6 pts	18 days	RED
Lapsed major DC-22 · Portfolio stewardship	74	15 pts	6 pts	47 days	RED
First-year digital DC-37 · Paid social + email	2360	10 pts	2 pts	22 days	RED

Review queue

Modeled fundraising remediation sequence

DC-08

Monthly sustainers

1840 donors in the Email + direct debit motion carry a cohort risk score of 47.

YELLOW

Increase cohort review cadence, tighten recency touchpoints, and validate upgrade messaging before the next appeal.

DC-14

Mid-level annual

520 donors in the Events + outbound motion carry a cohort risk score of 70.

RED

Escalate reactivation and stewardship review, reduce concentration dependence, and rebuild the evidence packet before the next campaign cycle.

DC-22

Lapsed major

74 donors in the Portfolio stewardship motion carry a cohort risk score of 125.

RED

Escalate reactivation and stewardship review, reduce concentration dependence, and rebuild the evidence packet before the next campaign cycle.

DC-37

First-year digital

2360 donors in the Paid social + email motion carry a cohort risk score of 58.

RED

Escalate reactivation and stewardship review, reduce concentration dependence, and rebuild the evidence packet before the next campaign cycle.

Why this matters

A donor cohort risk lab becomes monetizable when the same R analysis can support campaign review packets, donor-health templates, and embedded fundraising evidence work.