donor cohort risk lab · retention matrix
cohort drift by fundraising motion

Cohort drift stays readable for fundraising review.

This route turns statistical movement into cohort-specific action cues teams can use for campaign planning, board packets, and stewardship cleanup before donor loss compounds.

Synthetic demonstration data only. No real donor or CRM data is included.
DC-08

Monthly sustainers

Retention drift is 7 points and upgrade drift is 4 points for 1840 donors.

Recency gap is 11 days against the expected cadence.

Increase cohort review cadence, tighten recency touchpoints, and validate upgrade messaging before the next appeal.

DC-14

Mid-level annual

Retention drift is 8 points and upgrade drift is 6 points for 520 donors.

Recency gap is 18 days against the expected cadence.

Escalate reactivation and stewardship review, reduce concentration dependence, and rebuild the evidence packet before the next campaign cycle.

DC-22

Lapsed major

Retention drift is 15 points and upgrade drift is 6 points for 74 donors.

Recency gap is 47 days against the expected cadence.

Escalate reactivation and stewardship review, reduce concentration dependence, and rebuild the evidence packet before the next campaign cycle.

DC-37

First-year digital

Retention drift is 10 points and upgrade drift is 2 points for 2360 donors.

Recency gap is 22 days against the expected cadence.

Escalate reactivation and stewardship review, reduce concentration dependence, and rebuild the evidence packet before the next campaign cycle.